Here’s a prediction for how Derek Jeter, the Yankees’ Cooperstown-bound shortstop, will finish his season.
He’ll get his batting average up a bit — but only to .264, slightly worse than his career low of .270 last year. His on-base percentage, however, will be a more respectable .340.
He’ll steal 13 bases (he has none so far), the 16th consecutive season in which he finishes in double digits in that category. But he’ll wind up with just six home runs, breaking a similar streak.
He’ll play in 131 games, meaning that he’ll probably endure a stint on the disabled list. He’ll score 59 runs and have 51 r.b.i., both career lows.
Yankee fans might think this sounds unduly pessimistic; Jeter got off to an even worse start last year before rebounding somewhat. But history suggests that his struggles are not unusual; elite players are often average ones by the time they reach his age.